This is a longer range (1-15 day) probabilistic discharge forecasting system which uses European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble precipitation as forcing. ECMWF provides meteorological forecast for 15 days in 51 set of ensembles. After processing, the model uses these meteorological data and generates 51 set of discharges. Model outputs - Danger level exceedence probability, 25%,75% quantiles and mean is calculated from these 51 set of discharge. The output of this system is used as input for Medium Range (1-10 days) Probabilistic Water Level Forecasting system of Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). This system runs daily around 4 pm Bangladesh Time (UTC +6:00) and generate output for Brahmaputra River at Bahadurabad, Ganges River at Hardinge Birdge station and Meghna River at Bhairabbazar station. The research for developing 15 days discharge forecasting system was initiated by RIMES in 2017 in collaboration with FFWC, BWDB. The initiative has been supported since 2019 by USAID through SHOUHARDO III program of CARE Bangladesh, with complementary support from Government of Bangladesh. This has enabled the model to be operationalized and integrated into FFWC's operational Flood Forecasting System.
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